Manifesto for Honest Computation

In the paper's words

Phase VI (Final Synthesis). 5 principles, a concrete portfolio, the Falsification Pledge.

The abstract, verbatim, and its opening sentence is the claim. Every line below is quoted from the text.

Numbers it reports

1. Allocation Substrate What Success Looks Like 30% Analog quantum simulation 10,000-atom simulators; catalyst/pathway design 25% Optical processors 1,000×1,000 photonic circuits in production 20% Neuromorphic + memristive Memristive crossbar at commercial scale 15% Reversible/adiabatic CMOS Processor at 1% Landauer limit 10% Photonic quantum (room-temp) Logical qubit with error rate $\lt 10^{-6}$

   from 3.2 Medium-Term (3-7 Years): Scale What Shows Promise

2. Approximately 45% thermodynamic and analog (Ising machines, p-bit networks, analog quantum simulators), 25% optical (integrated photonic matrix processors), 20% neuromorphic, and only 5-10% fault-tolerant quantum --- a near-inversion of the current allocation where gate-model QC absorbs roughly 60% of advanced computing investment.

   from 1.4 The Portfolio (Phase IV)

3. Allocation Substrate Problem Class Status 25% Ising machines / thermodynamic solvers Combinatorial optimization Commercially available 20% Optical matrix processors Linear algebra (inference) Research prototypes 20% Neuromorphic processors Probabilistic inference, edge AI Commercially available 15% p-bit probabilistic networks Sampling, optimization Research prototypes 10% Analog quantum simulators Quantum many-body physics Research demonstrations 10% Conventional CMOS + algorithms General-purpose Dominant incumbent What to STOP funding at near-term scale: Universal fault-tolerant gate-model QC on superconducting or trapped-ion platforms.

   from 3.1 Near-Term (1-3 Years): Deploy What Works

4. These platforms should be maintained as fundamental research programs at ~5% of current funding levels, not as commercial ventures at ~60%.

   from 3.1 Near-Term (1-3 Years): Deploy What Works

5. Allocation Substrate Rationale 30% Reversible classical computing Path to Landauer-limit general-purpose computation 25% Photonic quantum (MBQC, CV) Room-temperature; avoids cryogenic penalty 20% Analog quantum simulation at scale Pharmaceutical and materials discovery 15% Fault-tolerant QC (crypto only) Only path for factoring; government security interest 10% Field-theoretic computation Speculative; fundamental research only

   from 3.3 Long-Term (7-15+ Years): Invest in the Physics

6. If you must invest in quantum computing, allocate no more than 10% of your advanced computing exposure to gate-model QC.

   from 4.1 To Investors (Venture Capital, Institutional, Retail)

How it is done

1. The Landauer bound does not privilege quantum over classical computation.

   from 1.3 The Limits (Phase III)

2. Five reforms are necessary: an Advanced Computing Projects Agency (ACPA) modeled on DARPA; mandatory independent verification for computational claims above a materiality threshold; structural separation of quantum hardware and software; joules-per-solution procurement for all government computational contracts; and a public registry of computational claims with time-bound falsification criteria.

   from 1.5 The Institutions (Phase V)

3. The honest approach: match the problem class to the physical substrate whose natural dynamics solve it most efficiently.

   from Principle 1: The Substrate IS the Algorithm

4. The honest approach: design computational architectures where correlation is the primitive --- not the qubit, not the gate, not the circuit depth.

   from Principle 2: Correlation Over Particle

What would falsify it

1. No computational research program should receive public funding without pre-registered, time-bound, falsifiable milestones.

   from Principle 4: Falsifiability as a Condition of Funding

2. Falsifiability is not an optional feature of honest science.

   from Principle 4: Falsifiability as a Condition of Funding

3. Every prediction we make about future computational capability will be accompanied by a specific deadline and a specific falsification criterion.

   from 5. The Falsification Pledge

Where the claim stops

1. The laws of physics do not negotiate.

   from 6. Conclusion: Honest, or Nothing

2. The roadmaps have been revised outward, repeatedly, from "five years" to "ten years" to "the 2030s" --- and those timelines assume flawless execution of error-correction protocols that currently consume thousands of physical qubits per logical qubit.

   from Preamble

3. The Landauer bound does not privilege quantum over classical computation.

   from 1.3 The Limits (Phase III)

Where to read

1. Preamble295 words · 1 min
2. 1. What We Have Learned504 words · 2 min
3. 2. The Five Principles of Honest Computation624 words · 3 min
4. 3. The Honest Portfolio: A Concrete Reallocation232 words · 1 min
5. 4. A Call to Action538 words · 2 min
6. 5. The Falsification Pledge266 words · 1 min
7. 6. Conclusion: Honest, or Nothing377 words · 2 min