**Bayesian Probability and Weight of Incumbency:** When evaluating a novel prediction from a new framework (like Î₁ from Infomatics/Autaxys) against the "null result" from an incumbent paradigm: - The incumbent paradigm has a high prior probability (due to past "successes," which may simply be due to inertia, bandwagon effect, and confirmation bias). - A null result (non-observation of Î₁ as conventionally expected) strongly updates the likelihood against the new framework if the new framework's prediction is rigidly tied to conventional interpretation. - However, if the new framework also challenges the interpretive lens of the incumbent paradigm (as autaxys does), then a null result might instead update the likelihood that the search method or expected properties (defined by the old paradigm) are insufficient or misdirected. - This is where careful internal validation of autaxys's own consistency and generative power becomes paramount, as you say, because we cannot simply use the incumbent paradigm as an infallible empirical standard if autaxys claims that paradigm itself is flawed or incomplete.